How to Assess Nebraska’s Land Market in 2026

Nebraska’s land market is still one of the most watched in the Midwest—but today’s story is less about nonstop appreciation and more about a market that’s recalibrating. Buyers and sellers are navigating higher financing costs, shifting commodity margins, and tighter transaction volume, all while land quality and water access continue to separate “average” ground from premium ground.

The Nebraska land market in 2025: what the latest data says

Nebraska’s statewide values softened modestly after several strong years. According to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Center for Agricultural Profitability, the market value of agricultural land in Nebraska declined by 2% over the prior year to an average of $3,935 per acre in 2025. The same UNL data also reports that Nebraska’s statewide all-land average value for the year ending February 1, 2025, averaged $3,935 per acre, a 2% decrease from $4,015 per acre in 2024 (University of Nebraska-Lincoln Center for Agricultural Profitability).

Land performance varied by use type:

• Irrigated cropland cooled: Center pivot irrigated cropland averaged 4% lower in 2025 statewide (University of Nebraska-Lincoln Center for Agricultural Profitability).
• Grazing strengthened: Nontillable grazing land values increased by 5% in 2025 statewide (University of Nebraska-Lincoln Center for Agricultural Profitability).

Regional reality check: location still drives outcomes

Nebraska isn’t one land market—it’s many. Soil capability, water availability, and proximity to demand centers can move pricing far more than statewide averages.

For example, in the Northeast region—often viewed as some of the state’s most competitive cropland territory—the all-land average value was $8,305 per acre, down 3% in 2025 (per the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Center for Agricultural Profitability).

Irrigation economics: water access can make (or break) the deal

In Nebraska, irrigation isn’t just an improvement—it’s a core valuation driver tied to yield stability and operating flexibility. But even irrigated segments saw pressure in 2025.

Statewide, gravity irrigated cropland averaged $7,745 per acre, down 5% in 2025, according to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Department of Agricultural Economics. Pair that with the decline in center pivot values, and it’s clear that irrigation premiums are being reassessed as input costs, interest rates, and commodity expectations evolve.

What’s happening beneath the headlines: total ag wealth and market activity

Even small percentage changes matter when you scale them across an entire state. Nebraska’s estimated total value of agricultural land and buildings dropped to approximately $164.7 billion in 2025 (reported by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Department of Agricultural Economics).

At the transaction level, recent sales data helps clarify what’s actually trading—not just what’s being listed. In 2024, the average land parcel size sold in Nebraska was 224 acres, with an average sale price of $4,995 per acre (from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Department of Agricultural Economics).

Momentum also appears to be slowing as the market moves into 2026. The number of cropland tracts sold in Nebraska dropped 4% from 2024 levels entering 2026, according to Farm Credit Services of America. Lower volume can widen the gap between “asking” prices and “clearing” prices—especially for properties with irrigation constraints, drainage issues, or deferred maintenance.

The lay of the land: Nebraska’s geographic mix (and what it means for value)

1. Eastern Nebraska: Productive soils, strong basis opportunities, and proximity to population centers can support higher valuations. Competition is often strongest where yield history is consistent and parcels are well-improved.
2. Central Nebraska: A blend of cropland and pasture with major water influence in some areas. Here, the details matter—well capacity, irrigation type, and regulation can shift value quickly.
3. Western Nebraska: Ranchland and the Sandhills dominate. Grazing economics, precipitation patterns, and dependable water access are often the main levers—especially where crop alternatives are limited.

What drives Nebraska land values today

1. Soil productivity and field performance: Proven yield history, soil type, slope, and drainage directly affect rent potential and long-term upside.
2. Water rights and irrigation infrastructure: Permits, allocations, well performance, and system condition (pivot vs. gravity) can influence both income and risk.
3. Development pressure near growing metros: Edges of Omaha, Lincoln, and regional hubs can attract non-farm buyers, changing pricing dynamics and timelines.
4. Energy and industrial influences: Wind, ethanol, and related infrastructure can create lease income—or introduce constraints depending on siting and easements.
5. Recreation value: Hunting, fishing, and habitat quality can add a premium, particularly when access and wildlife patterns are strong.

How to evaluate (“kick the tires on”) Nebraska land before you buy

1) Walk the property and verify what maps can’t show

• Identify erosion, compaction, or chronic wet spots.
• Evaluate field shape, terraces, and turn rows for operational efficiency.
• Inspect improvements (fences, bins, outbuildings, pivots) and estimate near-term capital needs.

2) Treat water due diligence as non-negotiable

• Confirm well depth, output, and water quality documentation where available.
• Match irrigation type to the parcel’s economics (and understand why some buyers discount certain systems).
• Review local water regulations and reporting requirements; they can vary significantly by area.

3) Check the neighborhood and the externalities

• Look at how adjacent land is managed—weed pressure and boundary issues can become your problem.
• Note nearby feedlots, livestock facilities, or industrial sites that could affect usability or resale.

4) Run the numbers like an operator and an investor

• Estimate realistic income under current management (cash rent, crop share, grazing lease, or recreational lease).
• Account for property taxes, insurance, and ongoing maintenance.
• Review easements, liens, access, and any title constraints that could limit improvements or future saleability.
• Compare pricing to truly comparable sales (similar water, soils, improvements, and parcel size).

Also plan for liquidity. Land can take time to sell at full market value—especially in a slower-volume environment—so your strategy should match your timeline and risk tolerance.

The wild card: volatility and timing risk

Nebraska land values respond to more than local yields. Interest rates, input costs, export demand, and weather cycles can shift buyer sentiment quickly. In a market where statewide averages have softened, quality assets can still command strong bids—but marginal ground often faces tougher negotiations and longer marketing periods.

When the numbers don’t work: choosing a practical exit

Sometimes a property doesn’t fit your goals, your cash flow requirements, or your timeline—especially if you inherit land, face an unexpected expense, or can’t justify additional improvement costs. In those situations, a fast, certain sale may matter more than holding out for the last dollar.

Final thoughts

Evaluating Nebraska land is part research, part due diligence, and part disciplined decision-making. Start with current statewide and regional benchmarks, confirm how irrigation and land class affect value, and then validate everything on the ground—especially water, access, and improvements.

If you stay focused on fundamentals and match the property to a clear plan (farming, ranching, investment, development edge, or recreation), you’ll be equipped to navigate Nebraska’s evolving land market with confidence.