How to Assess Hawaii’s Land Market in 2026

Evaluating Hawaii’s land market takes more than checking recent listings. Because the islands have limited developable acreage, every land-use decision forces trade-offs between housing, tourism, local food production, and long-term conservation. Investors and owners who track agricultural zoning, actual land use, and near-term economic signals can price land more realistically and spot opportunities (or risks) earlier.

Hawaii Land Supply: Finite Acres, Competing Priorities

Hawaii has a large agricultural zoning footprint on paper, but much less land is actively producing food or crops. According to the Hawaiʻi State Data Book, 1.93 million acres of land is zoned for agricultural purposes. In practice, however, only 886,211 acres—less than half of all agriculturally zoned lands—are presently used for agriculture, according to the 2020 Update to the Hawaiʻi Statewide Agricultural Land Use Baseline.

Crop production is an even smaller slice of the picture. Only 120,632 acres—less than 7% of all agriculturally zoned lands in Hawaiʻi—were under crop cultivation, per the same 2020 Update to the Hawaiʻi Statewide Agricultural Land Use Baseline. For buyers and sellers, this gap between “zoned agricultural” and “actively cultivated” matters because it influences water demand, infrastructure needs, enforcement attention, and long-term policy direction.

Macro Market Context: Why the Land Conversation Still Matters in 2026

Hawaii’s broader real estate market remains defined by constrained supply, high replacement costs, and location-specific demand (especially near job centers and resort corridors). At the same time, the near-term economic backdrop influences investor appetite and financing conditions. The Hawaiʻi Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism projects real GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2026, according to DBEDT. Even modest growth can support steady absorption—especially where land is scarce—while also reinforcing the need to underwrite deals conservatively by submarket.

What Actually Moves Hawaii Land Values

Land pricing in Hawaii is rarely driven by one variable. The same acreage can trade at dramatically different values depending on what a buyer can do with it and how quickly they can execute. Key factors include:

• Location – Coastal and resort-adjacent parcels typically command premium pricing compared with inland or remote sites.
• Zoning and allowed uses – Agricultural vs. residential vs. conservation zoning shapes value, but so do overlays, shoreline rules, and county-level constraints.
• Infrastructure readiness – Road frontage, grading feasibility, and proximity to utilities often separate “dream listings” from buildable projects.
• Water access and rights – Particularly critical for agricultural land and any project requiring dependable supply.
• Permitting complexity – Hawaii’s entitlement timelines can materially change holding costs and investment returns.
• Topography and hazards – Slope, drainage, lava zones, flood risk, and erosion exposure can limit “highest and best use.”
• Views and adjacency – Ocean views and proximity to established neighborhoods or resorts can lift value; isolation can reduce liquidity.

How Agricultural Land Is Evolving (and Why Investors Should Care)

Agricultural land in Hawaii is not only about traditional large plantations anymore. Hawaiʻi farming is now dominated by smaller, multi-crop operations, with an average footprint of 149 acres, according to the Hawaiʻi Department of Agriculture. That shift changes what “good ag land” looks like in today’s market: access roads, water systems, wash/pack space, and distribution logistics can matter as much as raw acreage.

Policy is also moving toward broader definitions of what can happen on some agricultural lands. The Hawaiʻi Department of Agriculture plans to overhaul its rules to allow more than just agricultural production on 25,000 acres under a new agricultural enterprise lands program, per the Hawaiʻi Department of Agriculture. For landowners, this could affect future demand, permissible income streams, and valuation—especially for parcels that can support ancillary operations aligned with updated rules.

Island-by-Island Dynamics: Why Kauaʻi and Oʻahu Matter Right Now

Hawaii is not a single land market. Each island has its own constraints, buyer pools, infrastructure realities, and policy priorities.

On the agricultural side, inventory concentration can shape both availability and pricing. Kauaʻi alone accounts for about 80% of the Agribusiness Development Corp.’s inventory of land, according to the Agribusiness Development Corp.. That level of concentration makes Kauaʻi especially important for anyone tracking statewide ag initiatives and land supply.

Public spending plans can also signal where the state intends to influence the agricultural land base and related infrastructure. The state’s budget for the fiscal year 2026 sets aside $39 million to buy 1,000 more acres on Kauaʻi, according to the State of Hawaiʻi Budget. Separately, it includes plans to spend $17 million to build a small animal processing and storage facility on Oʻahu, per the State of Hawaiʻi Budget. For investors, these moves matter because they can affect local land demand, operational feasibility for producers, and long-term confidence in agriculture-linked uses.

Development Potential: “Highest and Best Use” Still Rules

Land value ultimately comes back to what the site can realistically support—legally, physically, and financially. In Hawaii, “highest and best use” often depends on:

• What zoning allows (and what approvals are realistically obtainable)
• Site capacity based on topography, access, and environmental constraints
• Infrastructure costs for roads, water, wastewater, and power
• Market depth for the intended end product (homes, condos, hospitality, agriculture, or conservation)

Residential land may pencil for single-family, townhomes, or multifamily where zoning and infrastructure support it. Commercial parcels can trade based on projected tenant demand and operating income potential. Agricultural parcels often require more specialized underwriting tied to water, soil, and operational logistics.

Demand, Liquidity, and Market Timing

Hawaii land can be both highly valuable and illiquid. Liquidity depends on price, entitlement clarity, and the size of the buyer pool for that particular use. Resort-adjacent parcels may attract premium bids, while remote agricultural acreage may trade more slowly even if the asking price appears low. Tracking transaction volume and days-on-market by island and zoning category helps buyers avoid overpaying in thin markets and helps sellers set pricing that reflects actual demand.

Typical Buyers and How They Price Land

• Second-home and lifestyle buyers prioritize location, views, and proximity to beaches and services, often paying premiums for “turnkey” buildability.
• Developers price land backward from projected sale prices, subtracting entitlement, infrastructure, and construction costs (plus risk and profit).
• Commercial operators focus on access, visibility, parking/logistics, and feasible income generation.
• Farmers and ranchers value water reliability, soil, access, and operational infrastructure more than speculative upside.
• Conservation buyers price land based on preservation goals, restrictions, and stewardship costs, not development yield.

Practical Approaches to Valuing Hawaii Land

Most credible land valuations in Hawaii use more than one method:

• Comparable sales analysis – Most effective when you can find truly similar parcels (zoning, access, utilities, topography, and approval status).
• Residual land value (developer “backsolve”) – Common for land with a clear entitlement path, especially in residential and resort markets.
• Income approach – Useful for land supporting income-producing uses (certain agricultural leases or commercial uses), where permitted.
• Cost and feasibility analysis – Critical where infrastructure is missing or sitework costs drive outcomes.

Because constraints vary block by block, a parcel’s entitlement status, access documentation, and utility assumptions often move the valuation more than the acreage count alone.

Strategies to Increase Land Value Over Time

• Hold strategically to benefit from long-run scarcity and shifting demand—while budgeting realistically for taxes, insurance, and maintenance.
• De-risk the asset by clarifying access, completing surveys, and resolving title issues.
• Pursue entitlements where feasible to convert uncertainty into documented development potential.
• Install or extend infrastructure when costs are justifiable and it meaningfully expands the buyer pool.
• Subdivide where regulations and market demand support smaller, more liquid lot sizes.

Final Thoughts

Hawaii’s land market rewards disciplined analysis. The state has 1.93 million acres zoned agricultural, yet only 886,211 acres are used for agriculture and just 120,632 acres are under crop cultivation, based on the Hawaiʻi State Data Book and the 2020 Update to the Hawaiʻi Statewide Agricultural Land Use Baseline. At the same time, farming operations are trending smaller (average 149 acres) and state policy is evolving, including a planned rules overhaul affecting 25,000 acres, per the Hawaiʻi Department of Agriculture.

Island-specific actions matter too: Kauaʻi holds about 80% of the Agribusiness Development Corp.’s land inventory, and the FY2026 budget sets aside $39 million to buy 1,000 acres on Kauaʻi plus $17 million for a small animal processing and storage facility on Oʻahu, according to the Agribusiness Development Corp. and the State of Hawaiʻi Budget. Layer in the macro picture—like 1.5% projected real GDP growth in 2026 from DBEDT—and you get a market where pricing, liquidity, and land use are tightly connected.

If you’re buying or selling, anchor your valuation in zoning realities, infrastructure costs, and the parcel’s most defensible “highest and best use.” In Hawaii, clarity is value—and uncertainty is expensive.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What areas of Hawaii generally have the most valuable land?

Land values are typically highest on Oʻahu near Honolulu and along premium coastal corridors. Resort areas on Maui, Kauaʻi, and parts of Hawaiʻi Island also command high pricing, especially where infrastructure and approvals are in place.

How much does the view impact land value in Hawaii?

Views can significantly affect pricing because they shape end-user demand and resale potential. Ocean-facing lots and protected view planes often trade at a meaningful premium compared with similar parcels without views.

Should I get an independent appraisal done on land I’m considering buying in Hawaii?

Yes. A local, licensed appraiser (and, when relevant, land-use counsel and engineers) can validate assumptions about zoning, access, hazards, utilities, and realistic development capacity.

I'm selling my land in Hawaii—should I subdivide it first to maximize value?

Sometimes. Subdivision can increase total proceeds by creating smaller, more marketable lots, but it also adds time, cost, and permitting risk. Evaluate feasibility before committing.

How should I think about long-term land demand in Hawaii?

Start with scarcity and policy direction. Limited supply, changing agricultural rules, public investment (like the FY2026 allocations on Kauaʻi and Oʻahu), and the broader economy—such as DBEDT’s projected 1.5% real GDP growth in 2026—can all influence demand, liquidity, and pricing over time.