How to Assess Florida’s Land Market in 2026

Florida’s land market sits at the intersection of relentless demand and tightening supply. The state continues to pull in new residents, expand its economic footprint, and push development outward—while conservation areas, wetlands, and infrastructure constraints limit how much land can realistically come online. For investors and developers, that mix makes parcel-level diligence more important than ever.

Florida Land Market Snapshot: Growth Meets Scarcity

Florida remains one of the fastest-growing states in the country. Between 2023 and 2024, Florida’s population increased from 22.61 million to 23.27 million—up 3.37%—according to SmartAsset Population Change by State 2025. That momentum shows up in current state counts, too: Florida’s official population as of April 1, 2025, is 23,379,261 people, which is 20,731 higher than the prior estimate, per the Florida Realtors - State Demographic Estimating Conference.

Forward-looking projections still point upward. Florida’s population is projected to reach 23,759,816 by 2025–2026 (1.36% growth) and surpass 24 million by 2027, according to the Click Orlando - Demographic Estimating Conference Report. Over the next 14 years, Florida’s population is forecast to swell to nearly 27 million—averaging over 200,000 people per year or roughly 650 new residents per day—also reported by Click Orlando - Demographic Estimating Conference Report.

Near-term planning assumptions reinforce the same theme: from April 1, 2026, through April 1, 2030, Florida is expected to add an average of 305,953 net new residents per year (about 838 per day) at a 1.28% annual growth rate, according to Florida Realtors - Demographic Estimating Conference.

What’s Driving Demand for Florida Land in 2026 and Beyond

1) Population growth concentrates around specific metros

Statewide growth matters, but land values tend to move fastest where household formation collides with job expansion, infrastructure, and limited developable inventory. Tampa Bay is a prime example: the region is projected to add 397,000 residents between 2025 and 2030, with an alternative “momentum” scenario as high as 547,000, according to Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) - Plan Hillsborough.

2) City-level growth creates new land “hot spots”

Beyond the major hubs, several mid-sized Florida cities are showing notable growth rates that can reshape local land demand:

• Cape Coral ranks 90th among the fastest-growing U.S. cities at 4.32% growth, with a population of 251,819, per World Population Review - Fastest Growing US Cities 2026.
• Daytona Beach ranks 92nd at 4.26% growth, with a population of 92,873, according to World Population Review - Fastest Growing US Cities 2026.
• Palm Coast ranks 93rd at 4.26% growth, with a population of 115,233, per World Population Review - Fastest Growing US Cities 2026.

For land investors, these kinds of growth pockets can support demand for subdivisions, infill, small-scale commercial, storage, and service-oriented development—if zoning, utilities, and flood risk align.

3) Economic expansion increases pressure on commercial and industrial land

Florida’s growth is not purely residential. Economic output is expected to rise sharply: Florida’s GDP is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2028, representing a 20% increase from the prior year, according to Click Orlando - UCF Economist Sean Snaith Analysis. As GDP scales, demand typically follows for logistics, medical, office, mixed-use, and supporting retail—often pushing land values higher along key corridors and near employment nodes.

4) Limited supply remains the structural constraint

Even though Florida is geographically large, developable land is not infinite. Conservation designations, wetlands, agricultural preservation, stormwater needs, and infrastructure limitations all restrict what can be built—and where. In practice, scarcity shows up as competition for parcels that already have (or can realistically obtain) the right zoning, entitlements, utilities, and access.

Recent Land Value Trends: What to Watch Now

Florida experienced a powerful run-up in land values during the last cycle, then moved into a more selective environment as financing costs rose and underwriting tightened. Today’s market often rewards realism over speculation: parcels with clear paths to permitting and utilities tend to hold value better than remote lots without infrastructure or near-term absorption.

Local conditions still vary dramatically by county and submarket. Track what is actually selling—by zoning category and usability—not just what is listed.

Risk Factors to Weigh Before Buying Florida Land

• Overpaying in a fragmented market: Pricing can vary block by block based on access, utilities, and entitlement status. Validate assumptions with true comparable sales.
• Soft absorption in tertiary areas: Growth headlines do not guarantee demand for every parcel. Focus on locations with visible expansion paths and durable drivers.
• Permitting and infrastructure costs: Impact fees, drainage requirements, utility extension, and roadway improvements can change the feasibility of a deal.
• Flooding and storm exposure: Coastal and low-lying parcels can carry higher risk and higher long-term costs. Always verify flood maps and site conditions.
• Holding costs: Taxes, maintenance, insurance, and financing costs accumulate quickly—especially on longer entitlement timelines.
• Interest-rate sensitivity: Higher rates reduce end-buyer affordability and can slow lot takedowns or vertical development starts.

Mitigate these risks with disciplined underwriting and parcel-specific due diligence—especially when investing in Florida land.

Key Factors for Evaluating a Florida Land Parcel

Use this checklist to assess whether a parcel has sustainable, financeable upside rather than purely speculative potential:

• Location and path-of-growth: Prioritize proximity to employment, schools, healthcare, and established infrastructure. Corridors tied to job nodes typically outperform.
• Zoning and entitlement realism: Confirm current zoning, future land-use designation, and the probability/timeline of rezoning or variances.
• Utilities and access: Water/sewer availability, power, road frontage, and ingress/egress determine what you can build and how fast.
• Environmental constraints: Check wetlands, protected habitats, contamination risk, and required mitigation.
• Flood risk and drainage: Validate FEMA flood zones and consider stormwater design requirements that can reduce net usable acreage.
• Market demand and absorption: Review permits, starts, and nearby inventory. Favor submarkets where builders are actively taking down lots.
• Carrying costs: Model taxes, insurance, maintenance, and interest across realistic holding periods.
• Comparable sales (not asking prices): Adjust for entitlement status, usability, access, and utilities. Anchor your offer to verifiable transactions.

Why Florida Land Still Attracts Investors

Florida’s long-term case remains rooted in the same fundamentals—demographic inflows, business formation, and lifestyle-driven migration—but today’s investor needs sharper targeting. Statewide numbers illustrate why demand persists: Florida is projected to keep adding residents, including an average of 305,953 net new residents per year from 2026–2030 (about 838 per day) at 1.28% annual growth, according to Florida Realtors - Demographic Estimating Conference. At the same time, the economy is expected to expand materially, with GDP projected to exceed $2 trillion by 2028, a 20% increase from the prior year, per Click Orlando - UCF Economist Sean Snaith Analysis.

That combination tends to support long-run land demand—especially for parcels positioned near jobs, transportation, and utilities—while the state’s environmental and regulatory realities keep supply constrained.

Final Words

Florida’s land market has shifted from easy appreciation to a more selective, fundamentals-driven environment. Investors who stay conservative on valuations, focus on infrastructure-ready locations, and underwrite flood risk and permitting timelines can still uncover strong opportunities.

If you want exposure to Florida’s growth but prefer simplicity, consider working with an experienced local advisor—or an established buyer if your goal is liquidity. For more context on selling options, visit Florida land.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Which Florida regions look strongest for land demand?

Markets tied to durable job growth and infrastructure investment tend to lead. Tampa Bay’s outlook stands out: the region is projected to add 397,000 residents from 2025–2030 (or up to 547,000 in a “momentum” scenario), according to Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) - Plan Hillsborough.

Are there fast-growing Florida cities outside the biggest metros?

Yes. Cape Coral (4.32% growth; population 251,819), Daytona Beach (4.26%; 92,873), and Palm Coast (4.26%; 115,233) all rank among the fastest-growing U.S. cities, per World Population Review - Fastest Growing US Cities 2026.

How strong is Florida’s population growth right now?

Florida’s population rose 3.37% from 2023 to 2024, increasing from 22.61 million to 23.27 million residents, according to SmartAsset Population Change by State 2025. The official count as of April 1, 2025, is 23,379,261—up 20,731 from the prior estimate—per Florida Realtors - State Demographic Estimating Conference.

What do forecasts suggest for Florida’s longer-term growth?

Florida is projected to reach 23,759,816 people by 2025–2026 (1.36% growth) and surpass 24 million by 2027, according to the Click Orlando - Demographic Estimating Conference Report. Over the next 14 years, the state is forecast to swell to nearly 27 million, averaging over 200,000 people per year (roughly 650 per day), per the same Click Orlando - Demographic Estimating Conference Report.

How does the economy influence land values in Florida?

Economic output supports commercial and industrial absorption, which increases competition for well-located land. Florida’s GDP is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2028—a 20% increase from the prior year—according to Click Orlando - UCF Economist Sean Snaith Analysis.