How to Assess Arizona’s Land Market in 2026

Arizona’s land market remains active, but it’s also more complex than many buyers expect. Across the state, more than 4 million acres changed hands from 2016–2020, according to a USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service report. Raw land sales continued rising, with recreation, ranching, and other undeveloped land purchases totaling about 1.1 million acres statewide in 2021.

Today, land pricing and demand are increasingly tied to Arizona’s broader economic and housing signals. Arizona’s gross state product surpassed $450 billion as of 2024, according to JVM Lending. Major growth engines include an expanding semiconductor industry (up more than 5% year-over-year in 2024) and healthcare sector growth (up over 4.3% in 2024), both reported by JVM Lending. In the Phoenix area, a low unemployment rate of approximately 3.1% in 2024 also supported ongoing household formation and housing demand, per JVM Lending.

Because Arizona is a patchwork of micro-markets, the most accurate way to evaluate land is still county-by-county—balancing parcel characteristics (size, access, utilities), legal constraints (zoning, water, title), and local demand drivers (population inflow, permits, inventory, and nearby home prices).

Taking Stock of the Local Land Market

Arizona spans more than 113,000 square miles of deserts, forests, canyons, and alpine terrain—so land values can shift dramatically across short distances. Several modern trends shape the market right now:

• Population inflow keeps demand elevated. Arizona welcomed over 90,000 new residents in 2023, according to JVM Lending. More residents typically means more pressure on housing supply—and more attention on buildable land near jobs and infrastructure.
• Housing signals in Metro Phoenix matter for land. Phoenix’s median home price was about $480,000 in 2024, per JVM Lending. Higher home prices can improve the feasibility of new development, which can increase demand for entitled or easily entitled lots.
• Construction activity points to future land absorption. Phoenix residential permits rose 14% year-over-year in 2024, according to JVM Lending, signaling continued building momentum that can pull more lots and acreage into the development pipeline.
• Inventory conditions affect leverage and timing. Phoenix inventory hovered around 2.5 months of supply in 2024, per JVM Lending, a level that often indicates relatively tight conditions and sustained competition in desirable submarkets.
• Statewide home values influence land expectations. As of 2026, Arizona’s average home value is $417,121, down 2.9% over the past year, according to Zillow. This kind of shift can change developer underwriting, rural parcel demand, and how quickly sellers adjust pricing expectations.
• Active listings provide a real-time read on buyer choice. Approximately 27,000 single-family homes are currently on the market in the Valley as of 2026, according to the Arizona Association of REALTORS® via AZ Big Media. More resale options can cool urgency in some neighborhoods, while high-growth corridors still compete for well-located land.
• Public land ownership shapes supply. Over 90% of Arizona land is controlled by state or federal entities, which limits private inventory in many areas and can concentrate demand on the parcels that are actually developable.
• Water and climate remain decisive. Water access, groundwater rules, and drought exposure often determine what can be built, how quickly it can be entitled, and what it costs to develop—especially in desert basins.
• Arizona offers a buyer pathway through state trust land. The state’s open, competitive bidding process for vacant state trust land sales can create opportunities for buyers who understand the timelines, constraints, and due diligence requirements.

These dynamics produce sharply different outcomes across counties—from urban-edge infill and subdivision plays to long-hold recreational acreage. Local expertise and hyper-local comparable sales remain essential.

Key Factors That Impact Land Value

Raw land is one of the most detail-sensitive asset classes in real estate. Small differences in access, utilities, or allowable use can swing value dramatically. Use the checklist below to evaluate parcels consistently:

Location: Land near growing employment centers, highways, and expanding suburbs typically commands a premium. Remote acreage may price lower per acre but can carry higher development uncertainty.

Lot size and shape: Large, rectangular parcels with efficient frontage and usable topography usually outperform irregular tracts on a per-acre basis. Shape affects build-out yield, road design, and infrastructure cost.

Zoning and land use rights: Zoning determines what you can build today; entitlements determine what you can build tomorrow. Always confirm the current zoning, overlays, and realistic rezoning path with the county or city.

Access and legal ingress/egress: Paved access and recorded easements improve financing options and resale appeal. Landlocked parcels can become expensive problem-solvers rather than investments.

Utilities and infrastructure: Nearby power, water, sewer/septic feasibility, and telecom reduce development friction. Lack of utilities can be workable—but it must be priced in.

On-site improvements: Grading, fencing, wells, pads, internal roads, and prior site work can add value if documented and transferable. Always verify permits and as-built conditions.

Surrounding uses: Adjacent residential, commercial, or civic growth can lift land values, while incompatible uses (industrial nuisances, floodways, heavy noise corridors) can cap upside.

Environmental and physical constraints: Flood zones, protected habitats, washes, steep slopes, and geotechnical issues can shrink the buildable envelope and extend timelines.

Comparable sales (comps): Recent nearby land sales provide the strongest reality check. When comps are thin, widen the net by adjusting for access, utilities, and entitlement status.

Partnering With a Land Acquisition Company

If you’re new to raw land—or you’re buying outside your home county—working with an experienced land acquisition company can reduce blind spots. Firms that focus on Arizona land handle site visits, due diligence, and negotiation daily, which can help you move faster and avoid common (and costly) mistakes.

• Pricing and negotiation: Specialists track micro-market comps and can negotiate with sellers using verified data rather than assumptions.
• Off-market access: Established operators often source deals through broker networks and direct-to-owner channels before listings hit the broader market.
• Due diligence management: A capable team coordinates title review, access verification, zoning research, and environmental screening to uncover issues early.
• Capital and closing execution: Some land firms maintain lender and investor relationships that speed up funding and reduce closing friction.
• Exit and resale strategy: After purchase, operators can advise on taxes, holding costs, marketing, and timing—especially if your goal is to resell efficiently.

If you want help selling, you can also explore options such as selling parcels through a specialized buyer network.

Key Takeaways for Arizona Land Buyers

If you plan to buy vacant land in Arizona, use these practical guardrails:

• Underwrite the land, not the story. Confirm access, utilities, zoning, water feasibility, and any overlays before you assume a future use.
• Match zoning to your strategy. Verify that today’s zoning supports your intended use—or that a realistic entitlement path exists.
• Let comps anchor your offer. Compare apples-to-apples parcels and adjust for utility proximity, frontage, and entitlement status.
• Use pros for complicated deals. For rural tracts, title complexity, or development plays, experienced land teams can reduce risk.
• Time your plan to market conditions. Tight inventory can support values, while rising resale supply can soften demand in some submarkets.
• Prioritize growth corridors. Land near expanding metros, major roads, and job centers tends to retain liquidity.
• Utilities matter more than acreage. A smaller parcel with power/water access can outperform larger off-grid acreage depending on your exit plan.

Should You Invest in Arizona Land?

Arizona can be attractive for long-term land investors because demand is driven by both demographics and a diversifying economy.

Economic momentum supports long-run demand. Arizona’s gross state product surpassed $450 billion as of 2024, according to JVM Lending. Growth in major industries also strengthens household formation and business expansion: the semiconductor industry grew by more than 5% year-over-year in 2024 and Arizona’s healthcare sector expanded by over 4.3% in 2024, both per JVM Lending.

Job conditions remain a tailwind. Phoenix posted an unemployment rate of approximately 3.1% in 2024, according to JVM Lending, which can help sustain housing demand and, by extension, interest in buildable land.

Housing metrics provide signals for land timing. Phoenix’s median home price of about $480,000 in 2024 (per JVM Lending) and a 14% year-over-year rise in residential permits in 2024 (per JVM Lending) point to continued development activity. Meanwhile, inventory levels—about 2.5 months of supply in 2024, per JVM Lending—help indicate how competitive the buyer pool may be.

Recent statewide pricing shifts create selectivity. As of 2026, Arizona’s average home value is $417,121, down 2.9% over the past year, according to Zillow. That pullback can create opportunities, but it also raises the bar for due diligence and realistic exit pricing.

Active resale supply affects land demand. Approximately 27,000 single-family homes are on the market in the Valley as of 2026, according to the Arizona Association of REALTORS® via AZ Big Media. More resale choices can shift some buyers away from new-build areas, but well-located land still benefits when builders and households target growth corridors.

Bottom line: Arizona land can deliver strong upside, but the state’s public-land footprint, water realities, and county-by-county variation make careful underwriting non-negotiable.

Final Thoughts

Arizona offers a wide range of land opportunities—from metro-adjacent development parcels to recreational and long-hold acreage. The market’s long-term demand drivers include continued population inflow, a large and growing state economy, and strong job fundamentals in key metros. At the same time, shifting housing inventory and home-value trends mean buyers need to stay disciplined on price, timelines, and feasible use.

If you want to reduce risk, build a consistent due diligence process and consider partnering with professionals who understand Arizona’s zoning, water constraints, and micro-market pricing. With the right strategy and patience, Arizona remains a compelling state for building a land-focused real estate portfolio.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What types of land are best for investment in Arizona?

Many buyers prioritize parcels near growing employment corridors and expanding suburbs, especially where zoning supports residential or commercial uses. Access to roads, utilities, and reliable water feasibility often matters more than total acreage.

What is a reasonable price per acre for raw land?

It depends on location, zoning, utilities, and development feasibility. Use recent comparable sales in the same county or submarket, then adjust for access, frontage, topography, and entitlement status.

How long does it take to sell land in Arizona?

Timelines vary widely. Well-located parcels with clear access and utilities typically sell faster than rural, irregular, or landlocked tracts. Pricing to comps and marketing to the right buyer pool can materially reduce time on market.

What costs are involved in developing raw land?

Common costs include surveying, engineering, permitting, impact fees, grading, drainage work, road construction, and utility extensions. Always confirm requirements with local planning departments and utility providers before you close.

Are there financing options for buying raw land?

Yes. Options can include seller financing, land loans, private lending, partnerships, and in some cases construction-to-permanent financing (once entitlements and plans are in place). The best fit depends on your timeline, exit strategy, and the parcel’s characteristics.